Tonight’s presidential debate looks like Trump’s faint hope lounge, analysts say


This is the last-ditch saloon for President Donald Trump if he wants to turn the tide of the White House race, some political analysts say.

Thursday night’s presidential debate, the last such confrontation before the Nov. 3 election, comes as betting markets and swing state polls continue to favor Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

“The debate is the last big audience of the election season. Trump really needs a good night’s sleep to turn around the unfavorable environment for him, ”said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia.

The Republican candidate must “reach out to people beyond the 40-45% of the electorate who consistently support him” and do so “as soon as possible, because millions of Americans are already voting,” Farnsworth told MarketWatch in an email. More than 44 million Americans voted by mail or in person on Thursday, according to a Review of the American election project.

The 90-minute debate is scheduled to begin Thursday at 9 p.m. EST, with Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn. Serving as host and NBC’s Kristen Welker as moderator. Topics are expected to include the government’s COVID-19 response, climate change, and national security, which means there could be implications for XLV healthcare,
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Read more:Climate change and COVID-19 to feature in final Trump-Biden debate – when and where to look

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics give Biden a 64.5 percent chance of winning the presidential election on Thursday, and the former vice president has a 4.2 percentage point advantage in a Average RCP of surveys focused on the major swing states that are likely to decide the election. Trump and his campaign said pollsters were wrong about the White House race – and noted that predictions and polls favor Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016, but that she did not become president.

Trump’s situation in the upcoming debate can be compared to the situation of a struggling hitter in the last inning of a baseball game, according to Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota.

President Trump is like the baseball player who comes home in 9th with 2 outs, 2 in play, 1 point down – after hitting on his last 3 batting. Can the player understand what he is doing wrong and correct it? Jacobs said in an email.

The professor from Minnesota isn’t counting on a big change.

“Trump may be less out of control Thursday than his last debate, but a turnaround that we haven’t seen in the past 4 years is unlikely,” Jacobs said. He also argued that no modern presidential candidate had led a worse campaign, claiming that Trump appeared incapable of taking advice and offended key voting groups such as women, the elderly, the independents and people of color.

The first Biden-Trump debate, a chaotic clash that took place on September 29, featured frequent interruptions – primarily by Trump, but also by Biden. In response to how that confrontation unfolded, the Non-partisan Presidential Debates Committee announced on Monday that the microphones would be muted during Thursday’s debate to allow two-minute responses to open.

Related:Obama returns to campaign for Biden as Trump visits North Carolina

And see :Here’s how the major swing states are leaning in the presidential race – and how they’re weathering the recession

To be considered the winner, Trump needs to behave better and avoid making constant interruptions, according to Mary Washington’s Farnsworth.

“Trump’s strong suit is the economic performance of the first three years as president, before COVID. He needs to do more to focus on economic issues rather than complaining so much about how he is treated by the media and by Democratic politicians, ”Farnsworth said.

“Intense self-pity is not going to win the part of voters who have not yet decided which candidate to support. “

See:Trump loses big advantage over Biden on economy as election looms

Read also :How key swing states are leaning in the presidential race – and how they are weathering the recession

Thursday’s showdown follows last week’s dueling town halls, which took place the night a debate was originally scheduled to take place. After Trump tested positive for COVID-19, organizers switched to a virtual format, and the president objected and stepped down. In his town hall on ABC, Biden continued his attacks on his opponent’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, while Trump called for a tax cut for the middle class if re-elected and was toast by a host from NBC on conspiracy theories.

“One thing Biden needs to focus on is developing more specific answers, and maybe going a little lighter on the details,” Farnsworth said. “During his conversation at town hall last week, some of Biden’s answers were too detailed and risked losing some of them in the audience.”

Sarita McCoy Gregory, who chairs the department of political science and history at Hampton University in Virginia, said she “would love to hear [Biden] address young voters, like the young man from his town hall. There are an uncomfortable number of young voters still planning not to participate in this election. Talk about the issues that interest them: climate change, education and equal rights. ”

She also said it would be good if the former vice president, known for speaking out about his Catholic faith and military personnel, made an effort to reach out to other faith communities, as well as to other groups such as the unemployed, immigrant families or LGBTQIA people. community (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex and ally).

Gregory, whose research interests include black women’s politics, added that she would follow the dynamic between Trump and the debate moderator, as president previously. was hostile towards black female journalists.

“Trump has already tweeted that Ms. Welker is’terrible and unfair‘before the debate even took place, “she said in an email.” I will be careful about her behavior on Thursday. Just like other American women who vote.

Now read:Trump raised 5 times more money from top U.S. CEOs than Biden

And see :Here are the Senate races to watch as Democrats fight to take control of Republicans

This is an updated version of a report first published on October 20, 2020.



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